energy · Curated Lever · 5 min
Why did Europe depend so heavily on Russian gas?
Dependence grows when cheap flows become embedded in physical systems and contracts.
The intuitive answer
Europe simply made one bad purchase decision.
In 30 seconds
Nearby pipeline gas was commercially attractive and became embedded in power, heating, industry, long-term contracts and infrastructure. Replacing it required scarce LNG, terminals, interconnectors, storage and demand reduction - not just a different seller.
Read the full explanation ↓The unseen lever
Infrastructure and contracts create path dependence: yesterday's cheap connection shapes today's feasible alternatives and switching cost.
triggerLarge pipeline capacity lowers delivered cost ↓enablesmechanismConsumers and industry build around the supply ↓decreasesconstraintAlternative infrastructure remains limited or uneven ↓enablesoutcomeA supply cut creates an expensive, slow substitution problem
The deeper explanation
The short answer is the start, not the whole story.
Nearby pipeline gas was commercially attractive and became embedded in power, heating, industry, long-term contracts and infrastructure. Replacing it required scarce LNG, terminals, interconnectors, storage and demand reduction - not just a different seller.
Common overstatements
Interdependence can support stable trade, but it becomes vulnerability when alternatives are scarce and one side can tolerate a cutoff better than the other.
Where the answer stops
Europe is not one gas market: geography, storage and interconnection make national exposure uneven.
Concepts that unlock it
Path dependence
Past investment choices constrain the options available later.
Pipeline lock-in
Dependence created by fixed transport infrastructure and connected demand.
LNG
Natural gas cooled into liquid form for shipping and later regasified.
Energy security
Reliable access to energy at manageable cost.
What if?
What if Europe had built more LNG terminals and cross-border links earlier?
Check your understanding
Can you move the mechanism?
Question 1 of 2
Why could Europe not simply buy identical gas elsewhere overnight?
Choose the best explanation.
Question 2 of 2
What does path dependence mean here?
Choose the best explanation.
Evidence and limits
What supports this answer?
IEA estimated that Russian supplies were about 45% of EU gas imports and almost 40% of consumption in 2021.
Limit: This is a pre-invasion baseline; Europe subsequently reduced the share sharply.International Energy Agency - A 10-Point Plan to Reduce the European Union's Reliance on Russian Natural Gas ↗Alternative pipelines, LNG, storage, renewables, efficiency and coordinated demand reduction were all needed because no single substitute could replace the embedded flow quickly.
Limit: Options and constraints differed substantially across EU member states.International Energy Agency - A 10-Point Plan to Reduce the European Union's Reliance on Russian Natural Gas ↗