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Field note / 01Power · Incentives

Does peace require everyone to want peace?

Defensive capabilitycan impose losses*

Credible willingnessmakes response believable

Expected cost of attackThe point of leverage

reduces expected payoff

Attack looks worthwhile

makes restraint less likely

Peace remains stable

*The capability is usable and survives an initial attack. A credible peaceful alternative matters too; deterrence can also provoke counter-arming.

Read the causal links

Defensive capability and credible willingness shape expected costs. Higher costs make attack less worthwhile; when attack looks worthwhile, stable peace becomes less likely.

Defensive capability - increases: Expected cost of attack. The capability is usable and survives an initial attack.
Credible willingness - enables: Expected cost of attack.
Expected cost of attack - decreases: Attack looks worthwhile.
Attack looks worthwhile - decreases: Peace remains stable.

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The question

Does peace require everyone to want peace?

No. Peace can persist when institutions and credible defence make aggression less attractive than restraint or bargaining - even for an actor that prefers conflict.

The unseen Lever
Peace does not require identical intentions when the system changes the expected payoff from aggression while preserving credible alternatives to escalation.

How peace can holdOne decision at a time

01An aggressor compares attack with restraint
02Collective defence raises expected resistance
03Institutions make responses more predictable
04Aggression becomes less attractive
05Restraint can remain the better choice

Expected payoffDeterrenceCredible commitmentCollective defenceSecurity dilemma

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