energy · Curated Lever · 4-7 min
Why did Europe depend so heavily on Russian gas?
Dependence grows when cheap flows become embedded in physical systems and contracts.
The intuitive answer
Europe simply made one bad purchase decision.
The short answer
Nearby pipeline gas was commercially attractive and became embedded in power, heating, industry, long-term contracts and infrastructure. Replacing it required scarce LNG, terminals, interconnectors, storage and demand reduction - not just a different seller.
The unseen lever
Infrastructure and contracts create path dependence: yesterday's cheap connection shapes today's feasible alternatives and switching cost.
- 01Large pipeline capacity lowers delivered cost
- 02Consumers and industry build around the supply
- 03Alternative infrastructure remains limited or uneven
- 04A supply cut creates an expensive, slow substitution problem
Concepts that unlock it
Path dependence
Past investment choices constrain the options available later.
Pipeline lock-in
Dependence created by fixed transport infrastructure and connected demand.
LNG
Natural gas cooled into liquid form for shipping and later regasified.
Energy security
Reliable access to energy at manageable cost.
What if?
What if Europe had built more LNG terminals and cross-border links earlier?
Check your understanding
Can you move the mechanism?
Question 1 of 2
Why could Europe not simply buy identical gas elsewhere overnight?
Choose the best explanation.
Question 2 of 2
What does path dependence mean here?
Choose the best explanation.
Evidence and limits
What supports this answer?
IEA estimated that Russian supplies were about 45% of EU gas imports and almost 40% of consumption in 2021.
Limit: This is a pre-invasion baseline; Europe subsequently reduced the share sharply.International Energy Agency - A 10-Point Plan to Reduce the European Union's Reliance on Russian Natural Gas ↗Alternative pipelines, LNG, storage, renewables, efficiency and coordinated demand reduction were all needed because no single substitute could replace the embedded flow quickly.
Limit: Options and constraints differed substantially across EU member states.International Energy Agency - A 10-Point Plan to Reduce the European Union's Reliance on Russian Natural Gas ↗