Informational pattern

Uncertainty compression

Possibility, unresolved evidence, capability, and confirmed fact are presented at a similar level of certainty.

The diagnostic question

Which claim is observed, which is inferred, and which remains unresolved?

What to look for

Confidence language exceeds source quality
Accounting gaps become positive evidence
Later verification is confused with contemporaneous knowledge

See it in context

Public analyses using this lens

The case for the 2003 Iraq War

Did Iraq have weapons of mass destruction in 2003?

Not the active stockpiles or reconstituted nuclear programme presented at the UN. Iraq retained expertise and unresolved disarmament questions, but those were not the same as a current arsenal.

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The Gulf of Tonkin Resolution

Did the Gulf of Tonkin incident justify Vietnam escalation?

The 2 August attack occurred, but the reported 4 August attack did not. Treating both as confirmed created a much clearer case for urgent, broad escalation than the evidence supported.

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