Informational pattern

Evidence asymmetry

The evidence distribution presented by an argument differs materially from the independent evidence landscape.

The diagnostic question

Does the source represent the strongest supporting, challenging, and qualifying evidence in reasonable proportion?

What to look for

Strong counter-evidence is absent
Several citations share one underlying lineage
Evidence quality and independence differ across positions

See it in context

Public analyses using this lens

The case for the 2003 Iraq War

Did Iraq have weapons of mass destruction in 2003?

Not the active stockpiles or reconstituted nuclear programme presented at the UN. Iraq retained expertise and unresolved disarmament questions, but those were not the same as a current arsenal.

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The 2018-2019 U.S.-China trade war

Who really paid the 2018 U.S. tariffs on China?

Mostly U.S. importers at the border, although the policy also reduced targeted imports and benefited some protected producers.

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The Cuban Missile Crisis

Did toughness alone win the Cuban Missile Crisis?

No. Pressure mattered, but restraint, communication, a no-invasion assurance, and a private understanding over US missiles in Turkey were also material to the peaceful outcome.

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